Hello, dear readers. Thank you for your support over the past two months; I never expected that the notes I wrote would garner such an audience. Starting today, I have shifted my focus to the job search. I am looking to join a team where I can gain deeper insights
Data center construction may only take 1-2 years, but expanding power transmission and distribution, building new substations, and obtaining approvals often takes 5 years or longer. This "time mismatch" between lagging grid planning and the explosive demand from data centers could allow certain utility companies to see accelerated
In the field of innovative drugs, I am always searching for the "inflection point"—the moment a company transitions from "cash-burning R&D" to a "cash cow." Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (TARS) is currently at this exact stage. I. Core Product: XDEMVY Tarsus' flagship
Since I have judged that AI hardware is highly likely to face overcapacity, yet the established data centers will not disappear, a new thesis emerges. When tech giants scale back capital expenditures, the "main quest" for the money already spent (built data centers, purchased chips) will be to
The greatest mental anguish this week stems from the thoughts: "I could have done better" and "Is my system being left behind by the times?" Micron (MU) doubled in a single month, yet I liquidated my entire position around last November. My judgment then was that
The recent broad-based sell-off and multi-year lows in the U.S. Healthcare Sector require a critical assessment of whether there are systemic headwinds over the next three years. Having been deeply influenced by China's Volume-Based Procurement (VBP) over the past three years—where aggressive negotiations slashed drug prices
2026/05/09 Globus Medical (GMED): The No. 2 Player in the Spine Market On May 2nd, I recorded my investment thesis for Alphatec (ATEC)—a company whose valuation is suppressed by short-term debt despite having the most advanced spinal surgery solutions (eliminating the need to flip the patient, saving
The war in Iran appears to be reaching its end. If a massive volume of oil begins flowing through the Strait, I need to be prepared for an energy investment landscape defined by falling oil prices. I am simulating which natural gas companies possess strong profitability if oil drops to
2026/05/07 Palomar Holdings (PLMR): The Leap of an Earthquake Specialist I. Core Business: Precision Strikes in Niche Markets Palomar avoids the "Red Ocean" price wars of the general insurance market, focusing instead on high-barrier specialty lines with strong pricing power—most notably, earthquake insurance. * 2026 Q1
Apollo is transforming itself into a "bank without a banking license." Its core competency is shifting from traditional buyouts to origination, making it a "super bank" that bypasses the heavy regulatory and capital constraints of the banking industry. The traditional PE model (like Apollo 20 years
EverQuote’s business is not selling insurance; it’s a marketplace. When consumers want to compare auto or home insurance rates, they visit EverQuote’s site. Every form filled out becomes a high-value "marketing lead." Using proprietary algorithms, EverQuote "wholesales" this precise data to insurance giants
I. EBITDA: A Misleading Metric for Roblox In its Q1 2026 earnings report, Roblox posted an Adjusted EBITDA of $99 million. While this looks decent on the surface, it pales when compared to its current $32.3 billion market cap (as of May 4) and the following massive deductions: * The